On July 6, an organization released the latest research results on electric vehicles. It is expected that by 2040, electric vehicles will become the mainstay of global automobile sales, and its holdings will reach 33% of the total number of all light vehicles.
In the view of the organization, the impact of the electric car revolution on the automotive industry will be faster and more violent. It is estimated that by 2040, electric vehicles will account for 54% of new global light vehicle sales, higher than last year's forecast of 35%; The car will replace 8 million barrels of fuel per day, which will increase global electricity consumption by 5%.
JonMoore said: "The rise of electric vehicles occurs in the context of the clean and decentralized energy system. This trend means that the entire life cycle of electric vehicles will gradually improve."
Analyst Salimmorsy believes that the strong growth trend of electric vehicles is traceable, but there is still a need to increase investment in global charging infrastructure. “Consumers in many markets are unable to charge electric vehicles at home, which is one of the reasons we believe that the number of electric vehicles in 2040 is only one-third and not higher.”
It is predicted that global electric vehicle sales will grow steadily in the next few years, from 700,000 in 2016 to 3 million in 2021. By then, the proportion of European electric vehicles in all light vehicle sales will be close to 5%, currently only slightly higher than 1%; and this proportion will reach 4% in the United States and China.
ColinMcKerracher pointed out that the real take-off of electric vehicles will occur between 2025 and 2030. At that time, not only will the life cycle cost of electric vehicles be lower than that of internal combustion engines, but the initial cost of purchasing electric vehicles will also be lower than that of conventional internal combustion engines. From the perspective of it may be more important.
"We expect that the global automotive industry will enter the turning point between 2025 and 2030. By 2029, almost all major market consumers will find that the initial purchase price of electric vehicles will be equal to or even lower than that of internal combustion engines," Colin McCerracher said.
In fact, as a key component of electric vehicles, the cost has been significantly reduced, and will be further reduced in the future. The agency pointed out that since 2010, the price of lithium batteries per kWh has dropped by 73%. By 2030, manufacturing technology advancement and battery energy density will double, which will push battery prices down by more than 70%.
Even if oil prices remain low, the market share of electric vehicles will continue to rise rapidly in the major auto consumer market, given the decline in battery prices. It is estimated that by 2040, the proportion of sales of electric vehicles will be close to 67% in Europe and 58% and 51% in the US and China. Countries such as Norway, France, and the United Kingdom, which are the first to popularize electric vehicles, are expected to be the front runners in 2040. In emerging economies such as India, sales of electric vehicles are likely to increase substantially only as they approach 2030.
As for the other two hot topics - autopilot and shared travel, the agency believes that autonomous driving will have limited impact in the next decade, but it is expected to play an increasingly important role in the market after 2030. By 2040, in order to further reduce operating costs, 80% of autonomous vehicles in shared travel will be electric vehicles.
