As global emissions regulations tighten, automakers are under increasing pressure, and many automakers are turning to electric vehicles. Many car companies predict that in the next few years will usher in a small peak in the development of electric vehicles, and the battery as one of the core components of electric vehicles, whether its capacity can keep up, affecting the nerves of car companies. Many people believe that the existing battery capacity will soon be unable to meet the rapid development of electric vehicles.
As global emissions regulations tighten, automakers are under increasing pressure, and many automakers are turning to electric vehicles. Many car companies predict that in the next few years will usher in a small peak in the development of electric vehicles, and the battery as one of the core components of electric vehicles, whether its capacity can keep up, affecting the nerves of car companies. Many people believe that the existing battery capacity will soon be unable to meet the rapid development of electric vehicles.
Volkswagen Group plans to mass-produce electric vehicles based on its electric vehicle platform, and plans to make its electric vehicle sales reach 2 million to 3 million units by 2025. At present, several of the world's largest battery suppliers are vying for the Volkswagen Group's battery orders, but recently, Volkswagen Group Chief Strategy Officer Thomas Sedland said after evaluating the capacity of several battery suppliers: "Their capacity Not enough."
■ Electric vehicles ushered in rapid development
Multinational automakers such as Volkswagen Group, Daimler, BMW, GM, and Ford believe that electric vehicles will develop rapidly in the next decade, and battery capacity will keep up with the huge challenges faced by automakers and battery suppliers.
The emission door scandal not only caused the public to pay huge compensation, but also damaged its reputation. In order to reverse the situation, the public had to suppress the development of diesel vehicles and promote electric vehicles. Volkswagen plans to launch more than 30 electric cars by 2025. Volkswagen is optimistic about the development of electric vehicles in Europe, North America and China, while other car companies are also optimistic about the development prospects of electric vehicles.
For 2020, Tesla CEO Musk said that Tesla's electric vehicle production capacity is expected to reach 1 million units this year; Nissan Europe predicts that its electric vehicle sales will account for 20% of its total European sales. In addition, BMW is accelerating the transition to electric vehicles, hoping that by 2025, its electric vehicle sales account for 15% to 25% of its global sales.
■ Technological advances have caused battery demand to rise
It is not untargeted that car companies are so optimistic. As we all know, the driving range is a major factor affecting the development of electric vehicles. Now, the driving range of electric vehicles has been greatly improved compared with the past. GM's Chevrolet electric car, which has just been introduced to the market, has a driving range of more than 300 kilometers; Renault introduced the new Zoe pure electric car at the 2016 Paris Motor Show with a new 41kWh battery pack with a driving range of 240 kilometers. Upgrade to 400 kilometers. Many company executives and analysts predict that the next leap in the driving range of electric vehicles will appear around 2019. Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Audi and other car companies have set the driving range of electric vehicles to 500 kilometers.
In addition, as energy density increases, battery prices continue to decline. BNP Paribas issued a report saying that by 2020, the battery price will drop from the current 400 US dollars / kWh to 215 US dollars / kWh, and is expected to further drop to 140 US dollars / kWh in 2025. Tsai Che is more optimistic, he pointed out : "Battery prices will soon drop to 100 Euro / kWh. ”
BNP Paribas expects that the decline in battery costs will drive down the cost of electric vehicles. By 2025, compared with conventional diesel locomotives, electric vehicles will bring more profits to car companies. "We are about to usher in a full-scale explosion of electric vehicles. The critical point." Based on this, BNP Paribas said that according to the battery capacity of each car is 70kWh, to meet the demand of 8.6 million vehicles, the annual global battery capacity needs to reach 600 GWh. However, according to data provided by Swedish consulting firm EV Volumes, the annual global lithium battery capacity is only 41.57 GWh.
Most car companies do not produce batteries themselves because they lack relevant technology. Sedran said: "Frankly speaking, there is still a huge gap between us and Samsung SDI and LG Chem." According to his estimation, if the Volkswagen Group produces its own batteries and supplies them to its electric vehicles, then the Volkswagen Group needs to spend 210. One hundred million U.S. dollars. “We need to verify the economics of the battery suppliers involved in the bidding to see if they can provide the battery capacity needed by the Volkswagen Group.” Sedland did not know whether the order would eventually be distributed to a single company or multiple apportionments.
It is reported that the current suppliers in the global automotive battery market share a high share: Panasonic, AESC, LG Chemical, Samsung SDI, BYD, LEJ and so on.
■Supplier expands production capacity
Battery suppliers have seen tremendous opportunities in the electric vehicle market and are constantly building new plants. Sedland pointed out that the battery supplier's factory needs to be close to the car factory, because long-distance transportation of the battery is both expensive and dangerous.
In order to meet the needs of European car companies, LG Chem and Samsung SDI chose to build a new battery factory in Europe. Among them, LG Chem's new plant is located in Wroclaw, Poland, and is scheduled to start production in the second half of 2017. It is expected to have an annual production capacity of 100,000 batteries. In addition, LG Chem has battery plants in Michigan, Nanjing, China and Kamakura, Korea. Samsung SDI's European battery factory is based in Hungary and will start production in 2018 with an annual production capacity of 50,000 batteries.
In Europe, another car manufacturer that produces lithium batteries on a large scale is Nissan. AESC is a battery company formed by Nissan and NEC, of which Nissan holds a 51% stake. The site is located in Sunderland, England, and supplies batteries for Nissan Leaf.
Wolfgang Zibate, director of R&D and design for Jaguar Land Rover, pointed out that battery production will grow rapidly in a certain period of time. In order to reduce battery costs and complete the goal of producing 500,000 electric vehicles per year in 2018, Tesla built a super battery factory in Nevada, USA, which has recently started production and the first batteries have been off the assembly line. Tesla expects the plant to have a capacity of 35 GWh in the future. Musk also hinted that in the near future, Tesla will build a factory in Europe, which will not only produce batteries but also produce cars.
In addition, in terms of technology, in recent years, solid-state battery technology has made great progress. Sedland believes that by 2020, the energy density of solid-state batteries is expected to be 40% higher than lithium batteries. Silicon Valley company QuantumScape, which is owned by Volkswagen Group, is developing with solid-state batteries, hoping to improve battery performance and thus increase the driving range of electric vehicles. Sedran said that solid-state batteries are expected to be used in the Volkswagen Group in 2022, and may initially be used only in high-end cars. “I think it’s a good idea to take the high-end route because high-end cars must have high-density batteries and good charging performance. Solid-state batteries are likely to be used in the next-generation Porsche Mission E or Lamborghini models,” Sedland said.
In addition to a significant increase in energy density, solid state batteries have other advantages. “The batteries are safer because they have no flammable electrolytes, a 75% reduction in volume and a reduction in weight,” said Volkmar Dunal, CEO of Bosch Group. Bosch's goal is to launch a solid-state battery in 2020 to increase the mileage of electric vehicles and reduce costs. Toyota is also developing solid-state batteries and plans to commercialize solid-state batteries by 2020.
